By Martin Vongsuravatana (FootbAI) 
A new Champions League format
With no reference to previous years, the new format of the Champions League requires an analysis of how many points are needed to qualify. This year we have a single league of 36 teams, each playing 8 matches. The maximum number of points possible is therefore 24. There are two levels of qualification, as explained in our article on the format:
- The top 8, which gives direct access to the round of 16 as seeded teams.
- Places 9 to 24, which qualify for a play-off for the round of 16.
Opta’s statistical analysis
Opta used its supercomputer to run 50,000 simulations of the championship phase.
As far as the top 8 is concerned :
- 16 points are enough 98% of the time
- 15 points are enough 73% of the time
- 14 points works 28% of the time
So, with 15 points and a good goal difference, the top 8 is almost guaranteed in this new format.
For the top 24 :
- 10 points guarantees a place 99% of the time
- 9 points are enough in 69% of cases
- 8 points are enough in 16% of cases
So 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws would seem to be the minimum to qualify for the play-offs.
Football Meets Data also found the same number of points over 10,000 simulations.
Levels of 15 and 9 points with a good goal difference should therefore guarantee a place in the top 8 and top 24.
To find out more about the advantages of this new format, read our article on 11 reasons to like the new Champions League.
Source :